Thistle Tactician & Wind Evaluator

Workflow Mode Selection

#1 Standard Workflow #1 Standard

#2 Advanced Workflow #2 Advanced

Select Regatta Venue Preset

Start Date

End Date

Model

Start Hour

End Hour

Races (1-6)

Model Evaluation

📊 Weather Model Validation & Consensus Engine • HRRR, NAM, GFS, ECMWF, GEM, ICON

🏆 Option 1: Robust Cached-Weight Consensus (Steps 7 & 8) Recommended (Top)

Blends forecasts from all 6 models using performance weights saved in your browser cache. Instantly loads using a quick parallel download.

Current Saved Model Weights ?

Equal Weights (Default 16.7% each)

Validation Period

Validation Baseline ?

Compare with Consensus ?

⚠️ Option 2: Real-Time Live Validation & Consensus (Alternative) Less Robust (Bottom)

Downloads 7 days of actual history and past forecasts, evaluates them in real-time to calculate weights, downloads current forecasts, and averages them in a single synchronous operation. Heavy on data, slower loading time (~6-8s), and subject to recent archive data availability.

🌬️ Race Day Forecast (Best Model)

📈 Wind Speed & Gusts (MPH)

🧭 Wind Direction (°)

🌬️ Race Day Forecast Comparison

📈 Wind Speed & Gusts (MPH) Selected Model

📈 Wind Speed & Gusts (MPH) Consensus Blend

🧭 Wind Direction (°) Selected Model

🧭 Wind Direction (°) Consensus Blend

🌡️ Conditions & Barometric Pressure Trends

📈 Temperature Trend

💧 Humidity & Precipitation Trend

📊 Barometric Pressure Trend

🌡️ Conditions & Pressure Comparison

📈 Temperature Trend Selected Model

📈 Temperature Trend Consensus Blend

💧 Humidity & Precipitation Selected Model

💧 Humidity & Precipitation Consensus Blend

📊 Barometric Pressure Selected Model

📊 Barometric Pressure Consensus Blend

🔥 NWS Fire Weather / Convective Data

🏔️ Atmospheric Stability Indicators (Mixing Height & Wind Profile)

⚡ Convective Analysis

Run analysis to populate mixing height inversion detection, gust potential, and wind shear calculations.

💨 Gust Direction Shift Analyst

↻ Veering vs. Backing Gust Detection

Run analysis to detect right-shifting (veering) vs. left-shifting (backing) gust patterns.

💨 Gust Direction Shift Analyst Comparison

↻ Selected Model Puffs

Run analysis to compute.

↻ Consensus Puffs

Run analysis to compute.

🌍 Map & Synoptic Overview (Morning to Evening) • HRRR (3km)

Run forecast to generate synoptic-scale analysis and planetary boundary layer wind shift projections.

🌍 Map & Synoptic Overview Comparison

🗺️ Race Area Map Selected Model

🗺️ Race Area Map Consensus Blend

📋 Synoptic Overview Selected Model

Run forecast to generate selected model overview.

📋 Synoptic Overview Consensus Blend

Run forecast to generate consensus overview.

🏁 Race Day Hourly Breakdown

Run analysis to generate race-day hourly breakdown.

🏁 Race Day Hourly Breakdown Comparison

Selected Model

Run analysis to generate breakdown.

Consensus Blend

Run analysis to generate breakdown.

⛵ Dynamic Race-by-Race Forecast Guides • HRRR (3km)

Select race window start/end times and count, then run forecast to generate individual race strategy guides.

⛵ Dynamic Race-by-Race Forecast Guides Comparison

Selected Model Guides

Run forecast to generate guides.

Consensus Guides

Run forecast to generate guides.

🧠 Geographic Strategy Engine

Run analysis to generate wind-direction-specific geographic strategy for the selected racing area.

🧠 Geographic Strategy Engine Comparison

Selected Model Strategy

Run forecast to generate strategy.

Consensus Strategy

Run forecast to generate strategy.

📊 After-Race Assessment (Optional)

📝 Log Today's Race Conditions & Performance

Evaluate forecast accuracy and log tactical observations. This form is optional and does not block forecast checks. Data is saved locally in your browser.

Which Forecast Elements Were Accurate?

Wind Speed (Predicted speeds matched actual conditions) Wind Direction (Mean directions & oscillations matched) Weather Forecast (General weather & frontal passage matched) Wave/Chop Forecast (Steepness & swell matched bathymetry) Local Current / Tide prediction matched water movement Centerboard & Rudder Weed-Clearance Diligence Practiced

More Accurate Weather Model

Favored Side of the Race Course

Skipper Notes & Tactical Observations

Logged Performance Summary

--%

HRRR Model Favor Rate

--%

GFS Model Favor Rate

Most Favored Side

--%

Weed Diligence Rate

Date / Venue	Best Model	Favored Side	Accuracy Checks	Weeds / Diligence	Skipper Notes
No after-race logs recorded yet.

⏱️ Thistle Tuning & Rig Settings

🔧 Thistle Rig Tuning Guide

Crew Weight (lbs)

Mainsail Model

Jib Model

Spinnaker Model

Wind Condition	Partner Chocks	Shroud Tension	Jib Lead Position	Mainsheet & Vang
Light (0-7 MPH)	Loose / 1 small block aft	Loose (moderate play)	Slightly forward (full jib)	Eased mainsheet, vang off. Heel leeward 5-8°
Medium (8-14 MPH)	Snug / Standard block aft	Snug / Hand-tensioned	Neutral center hole	Firm mainsheet, snug vang. Heel 0-5°
Heavy (15+ MPH)	Tight / Pull forward	Max tension (bar-tight)	Aft 1-2 holes (flatten)	Active main dump, tight vang. Hike flat!

Note: The Thistle mast partners use chocks to control mast bend. In heavy air, pull mast forward to flatten; in light air, chock aft to induce power-generating sag. Rudder/centerboard weeds stall the boat instantly; practice frequent clearance.

⛵ Stayed Fractional Rig (No Backstay) Because the Thistle has no backstay, depowering and sail shape adjustments depend on interactions between other stayed-mast controls:

Mast Partner Chocks & Shroud Tension: In heavy breeze, pull the mast forward at the partners (chock forward) to bend the mast and flatten the mainsail draft. Tensioning the shrouds controls headstay sag, keeping the jib entry flat for high pointing.
Upwind Vang Sheeting: In heavy air, pull the vang bar-tight to bend the lower mast (flattening the main) and hold the boom down. This allows you to ease the mainsheet to dump gusts without the boom rising, maintaining control of the upper leech.
Cunningham & Outhaul: Pull the cunningham tight to open the upper leech and keep the draft forward. Pull the outhaul to flatten the lower third of the main.
Jib Halyard & Lead Position: Tighten the jib halyard to keep the entry clean. Move jib leads aft to open the leech and depower the jib.

Thistle Tactician & Wind Evaluator • Dedicated Thistle Class Strategy • 2026

♻️ Cache Reset Guide ×

The Reset Cache button performs a hard purge of the browser's storage and PWA cache.

What it does:
1. Deletes the Progressive Web App (PWA) cache storage containing code files.
2. Unregisters browser Service Workers.
3. Clears local and session storage (including cached weather model weights).
4. Forces a cache-bypassing page reload.

When to use it:
* Stale Data / Identical Plots: If the graphs continue to display the same or outdated curves after changing the date or model.
* Code Updates (Browser): After applying updates or fixes to the application code, to ensure your browser is running the newest files.
* Inconsistent State: If a network error causes the app's internal variables to get out of sync.

Mobile App / Android Behavior:
* Asset Packaging: Under Android, all HTML, CSS, and JS assets are bundled directly inside the APK package. This button clears your local weights database and WebView cache, but code updates are loaded from the package files. * Applying Updates: To receive future code changes on your phone, you must install/sideload the compiled debug APK. The app will then always run the latest code packaged in the APK.

💡 Validation Baselines & Desired Results ×

The system evaluates weather model forecasts by comparing their past predictions against a historical baseline. You can toggle between two primary types of baselines:

1. ERA5 Reanalysis (Open-Meteo Archive)
* How it works: Uses ECMWF's global ERA5 reanalysis grid dataset (9 km resolution). This dataset blends millions of global physical readings using advanced physical models to reconstruct historical weather on the coordinate grid. * Desired Result: Generates a highly stable, grid-exact independent baseline. It eliminates the self-referential 0.0 error loop of the forecast model, yielding realistic historical accuracy weights.

2. NOAA Weather Stations (Physical Baselines)
* How it works: Fetches real physical sensor measurements (ASOS/AWOS) directly from the NWS API. * Available Stations: * KSCH (Schenectady Airport): 15 mi SSW. Most stable and reliable. * KGFL (Glens Falls Airport): 20 mi N. Excellent northern wind flow proxy. * 5B2 (Saratoga County Airport): 7 mi WNW. Closest station geographically. * Desired Result: Direct comparison against physical anemometers. Helps identify which model best predicts real-world ground conditions, though observations are subject to airport site geography rather than the lake surface itself.